惊!权威产业估价师张仰荣博士预测,大马房地产业暴风雨即将来临,2018年或全面崩溃!许多人将面临破产危机!

spiderman     2017-11-15     583     检举

检举

惊!权威产业估价师张仰荣博士预测,大马房地产业暴风雨即将来临,2018年或全面崩溃!许多人将面临破产危机!

张仰荣博士预测,大马产业界大风暴已经酝酿多时,很可能明年将全面爆发。

《目前最先预感风暴将来临的就是屋业发展商,他们新建的房屋已经越来越难找到买主。除了一些信誉良好的大型发展商,及在优良地段发展的房屋计划之外,许多中小型发展商面对房屋卖不出去的困境了。》他说。

调查显示,由于大马经济处于不景气,失业率偏高,许多人已经失去了房屋的购买力,甚至连现在居住的房屋供期也还不起了。市场一旦失去购买力,就会迅速走向崩溃。

张仰荣博士Dr. Ernest Cheong认为,发展商及购屋者的焦虑情绪很可能会在明年农历新年过后爆发,因为农历新年后的市场一般都很淡静,当市场没有了购买力,许多房屋滞销,整条产业链可能就会掀起连锁反应,骨牌效应一旦出现,崩溃的可能性就越来越大。

他是针对副财政部长李志亮日昨在国会回答提问时公布的数目字做出评论。李志亮在国会回答提问时表示,2017年滞销的新建房屋为20,807个单位,同比2016年剧增了40%。

这意味着,2017年的大马房地产业表现,已经比去年逊退了40%。这个数字不可谓不惊人。

这20,287个卖不出去的新建房屋单位总值超过120.26亿令吉。其中绝大部分都是些售价超过50万令吉的高级公寓及有地房屋。

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/11/14/property-market-will-be-badly-hit-in-2018-says-expert/#sthash.zjrXReU1.gbpl

张仰荣博士指出,这只是其中一部分的问题而已,那些等待脱售的二手房屋问题还没计算进来呢。这部分少说也有大约40亿令吉的总值,加起来,整个房屋滞销的代价就高达160亿了。这160亿的市场一旦爆破,大马产业界是绝对承受不起的。

因此,张博士估计大马产业界的风暴肯定已经出现,只是看时间而已。他也预估一旦爆破,产业的不景气将会持续至少两到三年,最快也得等到2020年过后才有望复苏。

张博士因此劝请那些有意购买房地产的人暂时别进场,尤其手上有现金的人,最好多等一两年。当产业价格暴跌的时候,就是进场的最佳时机。

他预测产业市场如果暴跌,那时的房屋售价可能比现在还要便宜至少20%至40%,视地点与房屋规格而定。

《我担心的是那些在4、5年前产业价格最巅峰时期购买产业的人,现在面对市场不景气,房贷又那么高,想卖又必须亏本卖,或甚至就算愿意亏本卖也卖不出去,进退两难的处境最辛苦。》他说。

Property market will be badly hit in 2018, says expert

PETALING JAYA: The property market will take a terrible hit next year, with developers and house owners facing one of the toughest times to find buyers, says a real estate veteran.

Ernest Cheong said it could lead to a market crash as consumers do not have the financial capacity to own homes with some failing to even pay their monthly instalments.

“The panic (within developers and house owners) might start after Chinese New Year in February or later if the government decides to pump in money to strengthen the market,” he told FMT.

He was responding to a reply given in the Dewan Rakyat by Deputy Finance Minister Lee Chee Leong who said unsold completed residential units rose by 40% to 20,807 units in the first half of 2017 compared with the same period last year.

Lee had said the units were worth RM12.26 billion with condominiums and apartments costing over RM500,000 dominating the unsold homes in Malaysia.

However, Cheong pointed out that the RM12.26 billion is only from the primary market, which includes launches by developers. It does not include the secondary market, which is house owners seeking to sell their homes.

“Previously, house buyers needed to pay 10% as deposit. Today, the situation is different. Developers are in a desperate situation.

“That is why they are allowing buyers to pay 1% of the property price and pay the remainder upon completion,” he said.

Cheong said this “generous payment mode” exists because developers are finding it hard to sell off their new properties.

He said they are in danger of losing their bridging finance from banks if they fail to sell at least 40% of the total units. The bridging finance is used by developers to support their construction.

“This is where the danger starts. I predict if this continues, markets will crash within 24 to 30 months because consumers do not have the financial capacity to buy properties any more.

“Furthermore, developers who started building two years ago are expected to flood the market further with their units.”

He estimated the value of homes waiting to be sold in the secondary market to be around RM4 billion and expected more foreclosures by banks.

“So about RM16 billion of properties are waiting for buyers. But there is no demand. The reason is that people don’t have the money,” he said.

When the property crash comes early next year, Cheong expects the prices of houses to fall from RM500,000 to RM300,000.

He advised Malaysian consumers not to commit to buying a home unless they could save up to RM1,000 a month for at least a year.

“This is to cover for rainy days if they lose their jobs.”

Cheong said findings by the Employees Provident Fund show that 89% of Malaysians earn RM5,000 and below a month.

He said those who bought their homes five years ago are facing hardship as prices of homes were at their peak then.

On average, for every RM100,000 housing loan, a buyer pays the bank RM500 instalment a month, based on a 30-year payment period.

Cheong advised Malaysians to spend cautiously and invest wisely instead of buying any property at the moment.

“There should not be any urgency to buy a property at the moment. Try renting first.”

来源:绝世高手